The U.S. Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling on February 20, 2026, holding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. The 6–3 decision invalidated sweeping tariffs imposed in 2025 and opened the door to potential refunds totaling more than $170 billion for U.S. importers.
For many companies, those tariffs were paid as part of normal import operations and buried inside cost of goods sold.
Now they may represent something else entirely:
a financial asset.
As the legal process unfolds, a new ecosystem has emerged where investors purchase tariff refund claims from companies on a secondary market, providing immediate liquidity while taking on the legal and timing risk of recovery.
For founders and finance leaders, this development creates a new strategic question:
Should you wait for a tariff refund — or monetize the claim today?
What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Importers
The Supreme Court decision in Learning Resources v. Trump determined that tariffs imposed under IEEPA were unlawful because the statute does not grant the President authority to impose import duties.
The tariffs affected imports from numerous trading partners and generated tens of billions in customs duties, all of which may now be subject to refund claims.
However, the ruling did not establish a clear refund process. Businesses seeking to recover tariffs may need to pursue:
- Customs protests
- Administrative refund claims
- Litigation in the U.S. Court of International Trade
- Appeals and additional proceedings
In practice, many trade lawyers expect tariff refund litigation to last several years.
That delay has created an opportunity for capital markets.
The Rise of the Tariff Refund Secondary Market
Where there is delayed cash flow and legal uncertainty, financial markets tend to step in.
Following the Supreme Court decision, a secondary marketplace for tariff refund claims has begun to scale rapidly.
In this market:
- Importers sell their right to a tariff refund
- Investors purchase those rights
- The buyer receives the refund if and when it is recovered
Before the Supreme Court ruling, tariff claims were often trading at roughly 15–20% of their face value due to uncertainty around whether refunds would ever be granted.
After the ruling clarified the legality of the tariffs, buyers have significantly increased their offers — in many cases exceeding 50% of the potential refund value.
That pricing shift reflects two major changes:
- Legal certainty increased dramatically
- The potential size of the refund pool became clearer
For investors, tariff refund claims now resemble litigation finance or distressed receivables.
For founders, they may represent a non-dilutive source of capital.
The Finance Perspective: Time Value of Money Matters
Even if a company is confident it will receive a tariff refund, the timing of that cash matters.
Consider a simple finance example.
If a company expects to receive $1 of tariff refunds two years from now, and its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 12%, the present value of that future dollar is approximately:
$0.79 today
That calculation is straightforward:
PV = 1 / (1.12²) ≈ 0.79
In other words:
$1 in tariff refunds two years from now is economically worth about $0.79 today.
If secondary market buyers are offering 50% or more of the claim’s face value, companies need to evaluate the tradeoff between:
- Liquidity today
- Potential recovery later
- Legal risk
- Management distraction
For some companies, holding the claim will make sense.
For others, selling part or all of the claim could free up capital for growth.
Many Founders Don’t Realize They Have Tariff Refund Claims
One challenge is that many companies do not know how much they paid in tariffs.
Import duties often appear across multiple operational systems:
- Customs broker statements
- Freight forwarder invoices
- ERP purchase orders
- Cost of goods sold accounts
When aggregated, the numbers can be meaningful.
In ecommerce, consumer products, and hardware supply chains, tariff exposure can easily reach hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.
Companies that imported goods during 2025 and early 2026 may have significant IEEPA tariff refund claims without realizing it.
Tariff Refund Claims Are a New Kind of Balance Sheet Asset
At Karlon Group, we think about opportunities like this as hidden balance sheet assets.
These are assets that rarely appear clearly on financial statements but can represent real value to the business.
Examples include:
- R&D tax credits
- Sales tax recoveries
- Duty drawback claims
- Import tariff refunds
- Tariff refund claims resulting from the Supreme Court IEEPA ruling
The difference today is that tariff refund claims are becoming tradable financial instruments through the emerging tariff refund marketplace.
That means companies are no longer forced to simply wait for the legal system.
They now have options.
How Founders Should Evaluate Tariff Refund Opportunities
For companies that imported goods during the IEEPA tariff period, the first step is simply understanding the potential exposure.
That typically involves:
- Identifying all tariff payments made during the relevant period
- Confirming importer-of-record status
- Gathering entry documentation and customs records
- Estimating the potential tariff refund claim value
From there, founders can evaluate the three main options:
1. Wait for refunds through the legal process
Potentially maximize value but wait years.
2. Pursue litigation or formal refund claims
Higher effort and legal costs.
3. Sell the claim in the tariff refund marketplace
Immediate liquidity at a discounted value.
There is no single correct answer — the optimal choice depends on the company’s capital needs and risk tolerance.
Final Thoughts
The Supreme Court’s February 2026 tariff ruling created one of the largest potential refund events in U.S. trade history.
More importantly, it created something new for operating businesses: a market where tariff refund claims can be monetized.
For founders, the real opportunity is not just recovering tariffs — it is understanding the financial strategy around those refunds.
In some cases, waiting will make sense.
In others, converting a tariff refund claim into immediate capital could allow companies to reinvest in inventory, marketing, hiring, or growth.
Either way, companies that analyze their tariff exposure now will be in the best position to benefit as the secondary market for tariff refund claims continues to mature.
We at Karlon Group are working with founders to navigate this assessment and process.
About the Author:
Sean Scanlon is co-founder and Managing Partner at Karlon Group, a fractional finance and accounting firm that helps companies build, scale, and optimize their finance and accounting functions. Karlon Group works with companies across SaaS, consumer, manufacturing, and technology, offering a full suite of finance and accounting support tailored to each client’s changing needs.